Archive 3/2020

Vlastimil Havlík
Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-3650-5783
e-mail: havlik@fss.muni.cz

Miroslav Nemčok
University of Helsinki, Helsinky, Finland
ORCID: 0000-0003-3556-5557
e-mail: miroslav.nemcok@gmail.com

Peter Spáč
Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-4395-689X
e-mail: spac@fss.muni.cz

Jozef Zagrapan
Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-4045-2648
e-mail: jozef.zagrapan@savba.sk

Abstract

In recent years Slovakia witnessed a dynamic development with crucial consequences for its domestic politics. Vast civic mobilization, the emergence of new parties and decline of a long-term hegemon – all these features culminated in the 2020 general election. We first introduce the results and discuss them from a longitudinal perspective of Slovak politics. Most importantly, despite a considerably large portion of correctly casted ballots for parties which failed to pass the institutional thresholds, the outcomes do not suggest that the representativity or proportionality of the Slovak political system is about to suffer. Second, we focus on the rise and ideological appeals of populist political parties. Although similar in many ways, we show important differences in their ideological platforms.

Key words

new parties; expert survey; wasted votes; proportional representation; populism; radical right

Michael Rossi,
Long Island University – Brooklyn, New York, USA
ORCID: 0000-0003-4193-2915
e-mail: Michael.Rossi@liu.edu

Abstract

The February 2020 parliamentary election marked a significant moment for Slovakia after years of public dissatisfaction with endemic corruption, political mismanagement, and unaccountable leadership associated with the political hegemony of Smer-SD and its leader Robert Fico. The resounding victory of the Ordinary People and Independent Personalities Party offers the country an opportunity to not only address the problems with Slovakia’s political culture of corruption and oligarchism, but also to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, and good governance. However, contrary to international expectations, the electoral demographic that chose Zuzana Čaputová as Slovakia’s new president in 2019 failed to secure enough votes to place any liberal democratic party in parliament, leaving the current legislature dominated by a collection of conservative, populist, and Eurosceptic parties. While seen by some analysts as a setback, the prognosis for Slovakian politics appears rather optimistic. This article assesses the outcomes of the February election and notes a continued pattern of political entrepreneurialism where the most successful parties tend to be those that promote broad-based issues of policy instead of any particular ideology, conservative or liberal. Slovakian politics might have been significantly influenced by a number of nationalist and conservative parties over the past three decades, but actual policy has been directed by opportunists instead of ideologues. This has enabled these larger entrepreneurial parties to adopt conservative elements into their programmes for electoral advantage instead of from actual conviction. This leaves open the possibility that entrepreneurial parties might gravitate towards more liberal democratic and even progressive policies should advantageous opportunities arise in the future. Given the current efforts by Slovakian political actors to break with past patterns of oligarchism, coupled with the discrediting of entrenched political elitism and the visible-yet-manageable threats from Slovakia’s far right, such outcomes are increasingly likely.

Key words

Slovakia; elections; OĽaNO; democracy; Robert Fico; Igor Matovič

Michaela Grančayová
Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-4117-7657
e-mail: michaela.grancayova@fses.uniba

Aliaksei Kazharski
Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-9782-7746
aliaksei.kazharski@fses.uniba.sk

Abstract

The article examines discursive framing of Muslims during the 2020 Slovak parliamentary campaign, putting it in the broader context of the four-year period since the previous 2016 elections, which took place in the shadow of the European migration crisis. We adopt a social constructivist framework to argue that, despite very low numbers of Muslims in Slovakia, Islam remains a politically divisive issue. Competing discourses strive to redefine Islam for their own political purposes, making use of politicized symbols such as the ‘kebab’ or the ‘minaret’ in the process. This makes Islam a floating signifier of Slovak politics to which multiple meanings can be attached. In the absence of actual problems with Muslim minority integration, axiological conflicts over Islam can be seen as representing broader struggles between more culturally conservative and liberal-multiculturalist forces.

Key words

Central Europe; elections; extreme right; identity; Islam; Islamophobia; multiculturalism; Slovakia

Jakub Lysek
Palacký University, Olomouc, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-3583-9917
e-mail: jakub.lysek@upol.cz

Ľubomír Zvada
Palacký University, Olomouc, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-0869-5014
e-mail: lubomir.zvada01@upol.cz

Michal Škop
Kohovolit.eu
e-mail: michal.skop@kohovolit.eu

Abstract

This contribution is a complex analysis of the geographic voting patterns in the 2020 Slovak parliamentary election using methods such as Geographically Weighted Regression, Hierarchical Regression Models, and Ecological Inference. It is focused on the winner of the 2020 parliamentary election, the populist OĽaNO, and on the loser, the traditional left-wing SMER-SD – within the context of electoral support and voter transition in comparison to the 2016 parliamentary election, and in part to the 2019 presidential election. The article contributes to the underdeveloped discourse relating to the spatial support of political parties in Slovakia and finds how the selected socio-economic indicators explain the varying voting patterns. The main finding is that Slovakia is an internally heterogeneous country. The socio-demographic factors have a differentiated (either positive or negative) effect on the electoral support for Slovakian parties. As a result, voting patterns differ not only between the western and eastern parts of the country but also between districts within a common geographic area or region. This reveals the complex set of dividing lines in the country and indicates future trends in Slovakian politics.

Key words

Slovakia; parliamentary election; voter transition; electoral geography; ecological inference; spatial analysis; Slovak politics

Lukáš Linek
Czech Academy of Sciences, Praha, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0001-8671-2778
e-mail: lukas.linek@soc.cas.cz

Oľga Gyárfášová
Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-0016-7866
e-mail: olga.gyarfasova@fses.uniba.sk

Abstract

This paper analyzes electoral volatility in the 2020 Slovak elections at the level of individual voters using exit poll surveys. The availability of exit polls from the previous elections of 2012 and 2016 allows us to put the 2020 election in context and analyze the patterns (and deviances from them) observed across the three elections. Furthermore, the paper summarizes the aggregate volatility since 1992, demonstrating a high level of net volatility with peaks of over 30 percent. As for the individual level, the analysis concentrates on three important issues in volatility research: (1) vote losses of government parties and the incumbent effect; (2) the role of new parties in mobilization of previous non-voters and first-time voters; (3) since Slovakia is a country with a significant Hungarian minority, special attention is given to vote switching by Hungarian voters and more general patterns of ethnic voting.

Key words

electoral volatility; party switching; Slovak elections; incumbency; Hungarian minority

Oľga Gyárfášová
Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-0016-7866
olga.gyarfasova@fses.uniba.sk

Peter Učeň
Freelance policy analyst and consultant, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-1466-4409
ucen@ba.psg.sk

Abstract

This article reviews certain trends in popular support for political parties – especially new ones – as they manifested themselves prior to and during the 2020 parliamentary elections. It summarizes the ways in which demand for change was expressed before and during the election through the election results and the data on party supporters. It concludes that the thesis on the radicalization of new generations of party-political challenges in the Slovak polity did not hold true in 2020. The main research question regards the possibility of conceptualizing the rise of two new moderate political parties, PS/Together and For the People, as a counter-mobilization against the previous emergence of radical anti-establishment and anti-systemic challengers within the party system.

Key words

elections; challenger parties; voting behaviour; (counter)mobilization; voters’ profile

Elisabeth Bakke
University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
ORCID: 0000-0001-5538-576X
e-mail: elisabeth.bakke@stv.uio.no

Abstract

Party systems all over Europe are becoming more unstable, as new parties win representation. Many of these parties have few members and little or no presence ‘on the ground’ and they tend to present themselves as an alternative to the old, corrupt, and/or incompetent elites. But are they really? In this article I investigate how the parliamentary elites of new parties differ from the elites of more established parties, using the 2020 election as a point of departure. Slovakia is a particularly interesting case, because since 1992, at least one new party has entered parliament in every election bar one. I find that new and/or populist parties are not necessarily much more representative, but most of them do represent an alternative to the established elite in some respect. Strikingly, genuinely new parties not only have younger legislators, but also literally represent a new generation: the generation of the party leader. However, as new parties grow older, so do their parliamentary elites. In leadership-dominated parties the composition of the party leader’s inner circle clearly matters for candidate selection and hence, for the social bias of the parliamentary elite. Finally, the idiosyncratic nomination practice of OĽaNO, the new prime minister’s party, is part of the reason for the party’s relative social pluralism, as well as for high turnover, ideological diversity and low party loyalty.

Key words

Slovakia; parliamentary elites; representation; new parties; Igor Matovič

Aneta Világi
Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0001-8993-9417
e-mail: aneta.vilagi@uniba.sk

Pavol Baboš
Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-7536-9027
e-mail: pavol.babos@uniba.sk

Abstract

Televised political debates have become a permanent part of electoral campaigns, the campaign finale. However, evidence that such debates can shift voters’ attitudes is mixed, while the impact on voters’ preferences is highly doubted. Our research contributes to this debate based on empirical data on the effects of televised debates in the 2020 parliamentary elections in Slovakia. In contrast to other research on the impact of TV debates’, we followed our participants for a longer period of time after the experiment, which allowed us to measure not only declared vote preference ex ante, but also reported behaviour ex post. We employed a pre-test/post-test experimental design in a controlled environment. The analysis investigates what effect debate exposure has on opinions about candidates’ leadership skills, credibility, and political competence.

Key words

Slovakia; parliamentary elections; TV debates effect; voting behaviour

Petr Just
Metropolitan University Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-5689-2680
e-mail: petr.just@mup.cz

Abstract

This article deals with one of the major political consequences of parliamentary elections in every parliamentary regime – the process of government formation. It focuses on the formation of the coalition government following the 2020 parliamentary elections in Slovakia, in the context of both pre-election developments as well as the main challenges and appeals of contemporary politics in general – the rise of far-right political parties. Its aim is to identify the coalition strategies presented before the elections of political parties and movements that had a theoretical chance of being elected to Parliament. Special emphasis is placed on the definition by the other political parties and movements of the long-time ruling party Smer and the far-right party Our Slovakia. The analysis continues with the post-election government formation process, the classification of the established coalition, including the allocation of cabinet portfolios, assessment of the similarities and differences of coalition parties, and factors that could possibly cause both instability as well as stability. It concludes that the joint definition by the new ruling parties and movements of Smer and Our Slovakia will, at least for some time, serve as a unifying factor keeping the coalition together. However, the coalition’s stability will be under almost constant pressure coming from both relations between coalition parties and the possibility of internal conflicts within the coalition parties and movements. The article argues that the establishment of the surplus majority coalition might – besides the official justification for it – serve as a protection against government destabilization.

Key words

Slovakia; elections; party; government; coalition

Abstract

Nina Jankowicz: HOW TO LOSE THE INFORMATION WAR: RUSSIA, FAKE NEWS, AND THE FUTURE OF CONFLICT. London: I.B. Tauris. 2020. 288 pages

Key words