Archive 3/2022

Vlastimil Havlík
Masaryk University in Brno, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-3650-5783
e-mail: havlik@fss.muni.cz

Jakub Lysek
Palacký University in Olomouc, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-3583-9917
e-mail: jakub.lysek@upol.cz

Abstract

The article analyses the results of the 2021 general election in the Czech Republic. The election was shaped by two major factors. First, it took place in the shadow of the Covid pandemic crisis. Second, the Czech Republic was governed by a cabinet dominated by a populist political party with unprecedented support from the communist party for most of the term. The major feature of the election campaign was the formation and eventual victory of two anti-populist coalitions. The results brought about a decrease in electoral volatility and fragmentation of the party system. However, the formation of ideologically diverse coalitions is a challenge to the increased stability of the party politics. Moreover, the electoral loss of two traditional leftist parties (the Communists and the Social Democrats) is a major change in the logic of party competition. The populist/anti-populist logic of the campaign undermined the discursive salience of left-right issues and suppressed the usual policy-based competition. Nevertheless, analysis of the electorate shows the dominant role of policy issues in the voters’ decision making.

Key words

populism; election; Czech Republic; anti-populism; volatility; party system

Daniela Ostrá
Palacký University in Olomouc, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-0778-3242
e-mail: daniela.vasatkova@gmail.com

Abstract

Using Critical Discourse Analysis and a qualitative dataset of social media communication, this article traces the transformation of Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s populist narrative before the Czech parliamentary elections in 2021. It argues that while in the 2013 and 2017 elections the prime minister’s central political narrative was based only on anti-elitist populism, it had already moved towards complete populism by the elections in 2021. In Babiš’s central narrative, one can find not only a reference to the will of the people and criticism of political elites, but also the exclusion of specific groups. The article suggests that a change in the archetype of the political brand of Babiš, who began his career in politics with a combination of the archetypes of a hero and a rebel, may also have a role in the changing of the narrative. However, Babiš entered the electoral clash in 2021 as prime minister and part of the establishment, which forced his move to the archetype of ruler. As this empirical study shows, the complete populist narrative is very compatible with the ruler’s archetype.

Key words

Populism; Narratives; Migration; Campaign; Political Branding; Brand archetypes; Critical discourse analysis; online communication

Jakub Lysek
Palacký University in Olomouc, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-3583-9917
e-mail: jakub.lysek@upol.cz

Karel Macků
Palacký University in Olomouc
ORCID: 0000-0002-5899-2626
e-mail: karel.macku@upol.cz

Abstract

This article examines the spatial factors that shaped the 2021 parliamentary elections. Building on a great deal of research in electoral geography and spatial analysis, it focused on specific spatial elements of voting behaviour that have not been previously studied, and on the key time-specific factors that shaped the electoral map and party system in the 2021 elections. Employing a quantitative approach to aggregate electoral and socio-demographic data, the study maps the electoral dynamic by exploiting the unique political situations that were characterized by a competition between two blocs – the two centre-right coalitions, SPOLU and the Pirates and STAN, and the populist ANO and SPD parties. Despite profound changes in the party system, the spatial stratification of Czech politics remained unchanged. Quite the contrary, the societal cleavages shaped the spatial voting patterns even more intensively. Additionally, the study shows that regional context factors modified the overall nationwide trend. Varying from region to region, factors included religiosity, local patriotism, the role of local entrepreneurs, and the effect of a popular local leader.

Key words

Czech Republic; parliamentary election; electoral geography; spatial analysis

Lukáš Linek
Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0001-8671-2778
e-mail: lukas.linek@soc.cas.cz

Michael Škvrňák
Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-4647-4095
e-mail: michael.skvrnak@soc.cas.cz

Abstract

The literature on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected vote choice provides evidence of both ‘rally-’round-the-flag’ effects and the influence of perceived government pandemic performance. However, this evidence concerns short-term effects. Much less is known about how COVID-19-related economic changes and government measures in response to the pandemic have affected vote choice over a longer period. Using a post-election survey from the Czech Republic fielded in October 2021, we examine the effect of pandemic-related issues on support for governing parties in an election one and a half years after the pandemic started, focusing on a general evaluation of the economy and of government pandemic performance and on individual economic and health-related experiences of COVID-19. First, a negative health-related experience of COVID-19 did not affect vote choice. Second, only business loss negatively affected governmental support; job loss had no effect. Third, retrospective evaluations of the national economy and government pandemic performance affected vote choice, while retrospective evaluation of one’s personal economic situation did not. Fourth, the majority of the above-mentioned effects drove support for the dominant governing party (ANO) and only in a limited way support for the junior cabinet partner (ČSSD).

Key words

COVID-19; pandemic; elections; retrospective voting; economic voting

Gor Vartazaryan
Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-0367-7274
e-mail: vartazaryangor@gmail.com

Oliver Škultéty
Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-1013-2432
e-mail: skultety.oliver@gmail.com

Abstract

After the October 2021 elections to the Chamber of Deputies in the Czech Republic, the most discussed topic has been preferential voting due to the surprising results for the coalition of the Czech Pirate Party and the Mayors and Independents. This fact led us to pursue a comprehensive analysis of preferential voting in the Czech Republic. Taking a broad perspective, this study of the Czech Republic explores the mechanisms of preferential voting in flexible-party lists. Preferential voting is analysed at the party-electorate level. This article proves that a flexible-party list system can have significantly different results compared to other systems in accordance with the number of votes per voter and the threshold for candidates. It also finds evidence that sub-party competition is significantly higher for coalitions where the degree of preferential voting is higher. The ideological stance of a political party does not play a role in the use of preferential votes.

Key words

Flexible-party list; preferential voting; Czech Republic; amendment on electoral law; Chamber of Deputies

Stanislav Balík
Masaryk University in Brno, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-0384-4888
e-mail: balik@mail.muni.cz

Jan Hruška
Masaryk University in Brno, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-5667-8430
e-mail: jan.hruska@mail.muni.cz

Abstract

Preferential voting in a proportional list system is an essential means by which voters can significantly influence which particular politician will represent them. However, preferential voting takes on a new dimension when several parties run on the same list as a coalition. In this case, the intra-party competition may become inter-party competition, where one or more parties may gain significantly from preferential voting at the expense of their partners. Despite this, research on this topic has been significantly neglected. Using the case of the 2021 Czech general election, where two newly formed electoral coalitions (SPOLU and PIRSTAN) run, we examine the nature of preferential voting in this different context of electoral coalitions. In the first part of the analysis, when we analyzed the characteristics of all candidates of both coalitions, we first confirmed that the candidate effect commonly observed in the case of conventional candidate lists also exists in this context. At the same time, we found that the candidate effect (through the adequate distribution of influential characteristics across parties in a coalition) can also affect the inter-party competition (as was the case of the PIRSTAN coalition). In the second part of the analysis, we found that in the context of electoral coalitions, party characteristics can also have a substantial effect on preferential voting (as was the case of the SPOLU coalition). Thus, both of these categories of effects can exist in the case of coalition lists, and both can affect inter-party competition. Nevertheless, future research is needed to confirm whether these findings are generally valid or whether the Czech case is somehow deviant. Existing research on this topic does not allow for a comparison.

Key words

preferential voting; electoral coalition; electoral alliance; candidate effect; effect of party characteristics; neighbourhood effect; party membership; Czech parliamentary election

Zuzana Haase Formánková
Institute H21, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-5138-4003
e-mail: zuzana.formankova@ih21.org

Miroslav Líbal
Institute H21, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0003-4437-4488
e-mail: miroslav.libal@ih21.org

Jan Oreský
Institute H21, Prague, Czech Republic
ORCID: 0000-0002-4266-1769
e-mail: jan.oresky@ih21.org

Abstract

The share of women in the Czech Republic’s lower chamber of Parliament remains persistently low in comparison to other European countries, and below the world average. However, in the last general election, we observed a significant rise in voters’ support for women, alongside slightly better women’s positions on candidate lists. A flexible-list proportional representation (PR) system allows both the nominating political party and the voters to influence the composition of the legislature. However, it is not yet clear whether the low descriptive representation of women is due to the voters, the parties or both. Our primary goal is to test the actual effect of the parties and the voters on the representation of women in the Czech Republic. We analyse the Czech Statistical Office’s open data on more than 16,000 cases of candidates who competed in eight Czech Chamber of Deputies elections between 1996 and 2021, and who were nominated by relevant political parties. As a dependent variable, we employ the share of voters casting preferential votes for a candidate, rather than the candidate’s success in winning a mandate, which allowed us to include smaller parties. In contradiction to the common expectation of the existence of voter bias, being a woman helped candidates get more preferential votes compared to men, not only in the last but also in four out of seven previous elections. We thus argue that it is not voters, but rather systemic factors related to parties that favour men in the Czech elections.

Key words

: preferential voting; voter bias; descriptive representation; women; elections; political parties; Czech Republic; flexible list

Elisabeth Bakke
University of Oslo, Norway
ORCID: 0000-0001-5538-576X
e-mail: elisabeth.bakke@stv.uio.no

Abstract

Across Europe, new parties challenge more established parties and are challenged by even newer parties. The ‘new party’ literature focuses on why they succeed or fail, and whether they represent an alternative in terms of ideology, political platform, or ways of organizing, while the impact on descriptive representation has received less attention. Drawing on the new party literature and the elite literature, I investigate whether and how the rise of new parties with few members and little or no presence ‘on the ground’ has changed elite recruitment processes and outcomes in the Czech Republic, with special emphasis on the recent 2021 election. I find that although new parties put together are somewhat more representative of the voters in terms of gender, age, and education, all these parameters vary across the divide between longstanding and new parties. New parties are more open to non-party candidates, but because of low membership nomination processes are in practice even less inclusive and often more centralized than in longstanding parties. Strikingly, all parties reinforce the already strong education bias of the recruitment pool substantially. Otherwise, the social bias of the parliamentary elites to a large extent reflects the bias of the recruitment pool. The effect of preference votes on social bias was limited in most elections and candidate selection modes as such explain next to nothing.

Key words

Czech Republic; parliamentary elites; new parties

Abstract

Sabrina P. Ramet, Vladimir Dordević, and Christine M. Hassenstab: CIVIC AND UNCIVIC VALUES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC: VALUE TRANSFORMATION, POLITICS, EDUCATION, AND GENDER EQUALITY Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. 2022, 257 pages.

Key words